An Evaluation of a Three True Consequence Hitter

Kyle Schwarber of the Philadelphia Phillies; CC by License 2.0

The wave of three true consequence hitters and the general model of baseball that comes with it has been astounding. There have been lots of people who’ve been dogging this type of baseball and questioning if it even works and whether it is value doing. It is very important perceive what 3 true outcomes are and if a hitter using this technique can efficiently do it and the way they will efficiently do it.

What are the three True Outcomes?

The three true outcomes are house runs, strikeouts, and walks and a 3 true consequence hitter is one who primarily does these three issues. These hitters try to hit the ball out each probability they will get and this results in extra strikeouts however they’re additionally taking extra walks as nicely. There may be lots of criticism round this technique for hitters as it’s referred to as unhealthy baseball. It’s referred to as unhealthy as a result of it’s sometimes actually powerful to look at these guys play resulting from lots of unhealthy strikeouts and never lots of balls in play. Any Yankee fan can attest to this as they needed to watch Gallo battle badly whereas using the three true consequence technique. On this new period of baseball, we now have been seeing a significant enhance in this kind of technique whereas hitting.

The graph above exhibits the share of plate appearances ending in an HR, Ok, or strikeout per 12 months throughout the complete league. That is referred to as 3 true consequence share and it has risen fairly constantly over the previous 40 years. What has led to this enhance? This enhance has come from a change in philosophy throughout the sport of baseball as a complete and within the enhance of the sabermetrics as nicely. Dwelling runs are at an all-time excessive which has led to extra gamers going all out to hit house runs which has led to a significant enhance in strikeouts as nicely. The massive disagreement with this philosophy is whether it is working or not. The very fact of the matter is that it will depend on the hitter on if that is working or not. Some hitters have the uncooked energy to simply give attention to hitting house runs however different gamers haven’t any enterprise doing this technique. There are many hitters who make use of this all-or-nothing mentality with various levels of success. Nonetheless, the explanation there are such a lot of extra of those hitters in right this moment’s sport going for this technique is as a result of they’re allowed to. Sometimes these 3 true consequence guys have low BA, excessive SLUG, and excessive Ok numbers. Previously guys with these kind of numbers weren’t given lots of alternative due to how a lot BA was valued, however now we’re seeing an increasing number of hitters who’re promoting all out for HRs and walks on the expense of strikeouts. There’s a good stability for all this and that is what it appears like on a graph.

This graph exhibits how a lot a participant should stroll and hit HRs to fight the Ok%. This can be a very tough estimate and under no circumstances excellent however for each 1% of Ok% the participant should have a .598% BB%+HR%. So if a participant strikes out 20% of the time they should have a HR+BB% of 11.97%. These numbers come from only a tough estimate of what a participant must be so as to be environment friendly with the Ok% they’ve. A participant who’s above the road is strolling and hitting sufficient house runs to fight the strikeout price they’ve. A participant beneath the road is putting out an excessive amount of in comparison with the walks and residential runs. The massive knock on these 3 true consequence guys is that they strike out an excessive amount of to be efficient gamers. This graph goals to point out a manner if a participant is putting out an excessive amount of or not in comparison with the walks and residential runs. If a participant is putting out quite a bit they higher be strolling and hitting lots of house runs. Now that it has been established what it takes for 3 true consequence gamers to be efficient; it’s time to have a look at examples of three true consequence hitters all through historical past and see in the event that they have been efficient.

3 True Consequence Examples

Earlier than taking a look at examples you will need to set up a baseline. For a hitter to be thought of a real consequence hitter they should have a real consequence% of above 42.5%.

Rob Deer (1984-1996)

Rob Deer was one of many first gamers to ever be a legit 3 true consequence man as he posted profession totals of 31.2% Ok%, 12.7% BB%, and 5.1% HR%. This lands him at 49% of his profession PA ending in a Ok, BB, or HR. This is likely one of the greatest totals in MLB historical past. Nonetheless, for his profession, he was barely beneath the required line of effectivity on the graph above. For his profession, he jumped forwards and backwards over the effectivity line and he helped pave the best way for the way forward for three true consequence hitters. Deer by no means made an all-star group or received any gold gloves however his impression for the longer term was essential. In a time when it was worrying to place the ball in play each time; Deer was in a position to pave a strong profession path out of being a three-true consequence hitter.

Jim Thome (1991-2012)

Thome is well the largest identify on this record as he was a slam dunk HOF with over 600 profession HRs. Nonetheless, adore it or hate; he was a 3 true consequence man. For his profession, he had a 24.7% Ok%, 16.9% BB%, and 5.9% HR%. This lands him nicely above the effectivity line for his profession and places him at 47.5% for his profession 3 true consequence%. Thome was among the best hitters of the 2000s whereas nonetheless putting out at charges far above league common for his time. He’s the proper instance of a man who knew what sort of hitter he needed to be so as to achieve success. He seemingly wouldn’t have been the identical hitter if he tried to place the ball in play each time. Thome confirmed what may occur when a man with HOF-type energy offered all out for his energy.

Mark Reynolds (2007-2019)

Reynolds was a really strong participant for 12 years whereas enjoying for 8 groups in his profession. He made his residing on having lots of energy whereas putting out quite a bit. His profession totals appeared like: 30.9% Ok%, 11.3% BB%, and 4.8% HR%. This lands him with a profession 47% profession 3 true consequence%. This lands him beneath the effectivity line and his greatest concern was merely not sufficient walks and too many Ok’s. He had the elite energy however he merely couldn’t regulate his different numbers sufficient. Regardless of not being a profitable 3 true consequence man he was nonetheless a barely above league common hitter for his profession and was in a position to put collectively a strong profession utilizing this technique.

Kyle Schwarber (2015-Current)

Schwarber is likely one of the greatest three true consequence guys round right this moment and he has been doing it his entire profession. His 2023 12 months has gone viral as he’s hitting simply .183 however nonetheless has a .759 OPS. For his profession, he has a 28.4% Ok%, 13.6% BB%, and 6.1% HR%. This lands him at an insane 48.1% for his profession complete and this lands him above the effectivity line for his profession. His 2023 season has him at 29.3% Ok%, 16.8% BB%, and 5.9% HR%. This has him at an absurd 52% of his PA ending in one of many three outcomes and has him nicely above the effectivity line. Regardless of him hitting simply .183 he has been getting on base a good quantity along with his walks and protecting his strikeouts below that 30% mark. General, Schwarber has been in a position to carve out a really spectacular profession utilizing this technique and he has been a really profitable hitter this 12 months as nicely.

Joey Gallo (2015- Current)

Gallo is for sure probably the most polarizing 3 true consequence hitter within the MLB right this moment. He has an absurd 37.8% profession Ok% and in addition a 14.8% BB% and 6.5% HR%. He has a wild 59.1% profession 3 true consequence%. This leads him to be beneath the effectivity line and the principle cause for that is the Ok% that’s manner too excessive to be environment friendly. His 2023 season has been ever decrease as he has 43% Ok% whereas his BB% and HR% are much like his common. Gallo has a Ok% that’s only a plain and easy manner too excessive to be an environment friendly hitter even in right this moment’s sport. He has nonetheless been in a position to put collectively two all-star seasons although and total has had a strong MLB profession.

Three true consequence hitters are more and more widespread in right this moment’s sport and they’re right here to remain, adore it or hate it. The complexity round them on in the event that they work or not is a really tough query to ask. Nonetheless, the very fact of the matter is that when it’s finished proper and if a hitter is ready to correctly considerably handle their strikeouts and stroll quite a bit, then they will simply grow to be a superb and productive three true consequence hitter. It is very important know that not each hitter can obtain this and solely a choose few hitters with elite energy and an amazing eye can put up the right sort of effectivity numbers to be a legit 3 true consequence hitter. These guys won’t be the most effective guys to look at however they get the job finished when finished accurately.